Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) July Welcome to July in the Atlantic! For the first time in 10 years, we made it to the end of June with no tropical cyclone forming. But that is not to last. Right above my post, you can see that Invest 91L is bound to become a tropical cyclone very soon. Nevertheless, I predict a quieter July compared to 2011 or even 2013 - just '''1 tropical depression and 1''' tropical storm with an ACE of ~2.6 (give or take 2). AndrewTalk To Me 02:23, July 1, 2014 (UTC) : I predict 2 storms with 1 of them becoming a hurricane. The one that I predict will become a hurricane is the currently active TD One. The other storm I predict will form in mid-late July (around July 18-20) and be a moderate to strong TS. Steve820 04:45, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Recent GFS models have been showing a trend towards stronger easterly waves departing Africa at higher latitudes. With a slow and steady decrease of wind shear over the next 10 to 15 days, environmental conditions should become more favorable for development. AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, July 20, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Off Florida AOI: Off of Florida Just after Arthur dissipates, a new weak surface trough has emerged off of the coast of Florida producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, as the AOI moves northeastward at 15 mph over the next several days, upper-level winds should not support any development. For now, its chances of formation are at '''10% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 21:35, July 6, 2014 (UTC) : Down to 0% (2 and 5 days). Yeah, what a fail this was, and what a waste of that time and energy making and writing that TWO and GTWO. Next!--Steve820 15:16, July 7, 2014 (UTC) ::The AOI is off the TWO. Hopefully, this quiet will last for a while. AndrewTalk To Me 21:17, July 7, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9) AoI: Inland Africa Some models indicate low chances for formation of a tropical cyclone over the deep tropics in the Atlantic during July 9-15. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:09, July 7, 2014 (UTC) This could be interesting, but it might be a trashy storm. But we shall see what comes of this. BigO99 (talk) 01:27, July 9, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9) Emerged off of Africa, brought a layer of Saharan air with its axis. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 17:13, July 10, 2014 (UTC) :We have a really interesting pattern of tropical waves in the Atlantic. This is the lead wave of a quartet, currently located in the Caribbean. Moving westwards at 12 knots, it has brought a large surge of moisture with it to the Southeastern Caribbean. Interestingly, GFS is forecasting a circulation to pop up on Monday. However, given it is about to slam into 40 knots of wind shear, I doubt that is really going to happen. But it may have a chance in the Pacific. More information can be found in Jeff Master's blog post. AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::I have a feeling this might be Hernan in the Pacific (or Genevieve if the other AOI in the Pacific doesn't develop). --Steve820 16:43, July 20, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Near SE Caribbean AOI: Near SE Caribbean Right behind the aformentioned AOI, we have another system about to enter the Caribbean. It is moving westwards at 15 knots. More information can be found above. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :This moved out of Africa on July 15, also mentioned in EPac section. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:59, July 23, 2014 (UTC) 02L.NONAME AoI:Tropical Wave (July 17) Now this is the most interesting wave of the quartet. It is near 30W, and it has brought a huge moisture surge with it. More information can be found in the July 9 AOI section. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) : I predict we might see Bertha out of this in the long run. Who knows?--Steve820 16:40, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::: This is the only one NHC has up on the TWO as of now, 10% for the next 2 and 5 days, but I doubt it will develop due to hostile shear in the Caribbean. This might have a chance in the western Caribbean or the EPac in the long run, but that's going to be a different story for a different day. Ryan1000 18:04, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::This AOI is rather broad, and shower and thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Development may happen at a slow pace as it moves westwards at 15 to 20 mph over the Atlantic. Eventually, however, the AOI will slam into the wall of shear that is suffocating the July 9 tropical wave. For now, it has appeared on the NHC TWO with a 10% chance of formation for both the next two and five days. Steve, I am not expecting anything from this wave, but if it wants to become something in the Atlantic, it better hurry up! AndrewTalk To Me 18:06, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::Shear is not a problem. The epic dry air is.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::There actually is some strong shear in parts of the Caribbean (like there usually is at this time of year), but SAL dry air has become increasingly common in stopping storms over the past several years in ATL, more common than shear even. Eh, either way, this won't develop in ATL. However, it could have a chance when it eventually reaches the EPac. Ryan1000 22:34, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::I was refering to the East and middle Attlantic that is govern by dry air, meanwhile the Caribbean is screaming with all that shear. Supposedly base on the blog that a collegue of Dr. Masters conditions are going to be more favorable in the last days of the month and early August.Allanjeffs 01:18, July 21, 2014 (UTC) 92L.INVEST And now it's invested. The latest model runs on this one actually take it north of entering the EPac, into Hispaniola and dying in the long run. At best, this'll be another Chantal '13, or Emily '11, or not develop at all...Ryan1000 14:02, July 21, 2014 (UTC) Up to 50% this invest might steal the name Bertha before dying.Allanjeffs 15:28, July 21, 2014 (UTC) : Oh god I hope not...last thing I want to see is another weakling storm that just steals a name off the list. This could be Chantal 2.0. Ryan1000 15:41, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::Chantal 2.0 actually wouldn't be so bad. Remember that Chantal got up to 55 kts, so it wasn't far off from hurricane strength, and we've already had a Cat 2 hurricane this season (Arthur) whereas we got none last year. What I'm fearing is another Ana/Erika '09. For what it's worth, I'm relatively ok with the prospect of Bertha failing. Sure, it would suck to follow up Bertha's epic 2008 incarnation with a failure this year, but Bertha has already been a hurricane three times over, two of which were major hurricanes. The name Cristobal is what I'm worried about. That name has yet to be given to a hurricane since it replaced Cesar after the 1996 season, and I'd like to see it follow in Arthur's footsteps and accomplish hurricane strength for the first time this year. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:08, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::I'd also like to see Cristobal become a hurricane for the first time. The name "Bertha" might have to be used for an real big fail this year. It also looks very small on satellite imagery. Please...don't...epically...fail...--Steve820 16:20, July 21, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two Might not even make it to tropical storm strength.--Isaac829 20:42, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :I hope it doesn't, simply because I don't want any name-stealers. If it does become named it'll only peak at 40-45 mph and it'll be a big epic fail! I also want the name "Bertha" to be saved for a stronger storm and not for weaklings/failings/disappointments such as this.--Steve820 21:15, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::TBH I don't care if it peaks at 40 or 45mph. I want a tropical storm no matter if is an epic fail or not. The Atlantic is waking up and this year the name Bertha might fail but I don't really care.A storm is a storm. At least we got something to watch.Allanjeffs 21:35, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::Sorry Allan, but I'd personally prefer an unnamed tropical depression over a name thief; we had enough of the latter last year (see Erin, Jerry, and Lorenzo, for example). :::If this thing becomes Bertha, it will be subject to something I like to call the Hangover Effect. The Hangover Effect happens when a name is given to an overachieving storm (a storm that either achieves major hurricane strength, causes significant impact on land, or both), and the next time that name is used (or, if the name is retired after the overachiever in question, the name's replacement), the storm underachieves by failing to reach hurricane strength and/or cause significant impact on land. Examples of the Hangover Effect include Franklin '05 following up Floyd '99; Dorian '13 following up Dean '07; Lee '05 following up Lenny '99; Alex '98 following up Andrew '92; Claudette '97 following up Claudette '91; and Bertha '02 following up Bertha '96. After becoming a major hurricane and making landfall in North Carolina in 1996, Bertha's 2002 incarnation failed to strengthen beyond 35 kts and caused only very light effects in Texas and Louisiana. After becoming the easternmost, longest-lived, and third strongest July Atlantic tropical cyclone in 2008, 2014's Bertha may fall flat on its face just as or even before it reaches the Windward Islands. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:22, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::You might add Isis 2001 to Ingrid of 2007 :P but tbh I prefer this to be a fail but not stay as a depression but that is just me. Everyone has its own opinion,but btw its developing strong convection in its center it might be upgrade at 11pm or 5am, if does not start to loose its thunderstorm activity. Allanjeffs 23:43, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::The first advisory is out from the NHC. Convection remains somewhat shallow, and as a matter of fact, the 1210Z ASCAT pass was not conclusive in determining in a closed circulation. Since the NHC only assumes a closed circulation is present, I have the feeling Tropical Depression Two is not fully tropical. Nevertheless, it is in a marginal environment for development, with sufficient SST's and some dry air. Most models forecast dissipation within 48 to 72 hours, but from the hostility the depression is enduring, I won't be surprised if it dies sooner. The system is being steered westwards by the subtropical ridge, and it should continue to do so with an increase in speed. Based on ASCAT data, the winds of Tropical Depression Two are at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), and the pressure is at 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.89 inHg). The official NHC forecast does not take it to tropical storm intensity, and quite frankly, I don't want it to. Dylan, the 2011 AHS was full of the Hangover Effect. Dennis was an epic July major hurricane which trashed Cuba and Florida, but Don fell flat on his face. Emily was the strongest July TC on record and caused severe damage in Mexico and the Caribbean, but her 2011 successor slammed into Hispaniola and died. Katrina, as we all know, was the costliest Atlantic TC on record, but Katia had very little tropical effects. Rita was the strongest GOM TC ever and added on to Katrina's damage plus cause havoc in Texas, but Rina was a meh storm. Stan was a deadly nightmare for Central America and Mexico, but Sean just looped in the middle of the Atlantic. Any other examples? AndrewTalk To Me 00:34, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::I wouldn't quite call Katrina -> Katia or Rita -> Rina examples of the Hangover Effect. While Katia and Rina both fell far short of their predecessors, they were still both major hurricanes. Felix -> Fernand could be another example, but that might not quite be fair to Fernand since it did kill 14 people. Gustav '90 -> Gustav '96, Luis '95 -> Lorenzo '01, Cesar '96 -> Cristobal '02, Edouard '96 -> Edouard '02, and Michelle '01 -> Melissa '07 are better examples. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:45, July 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I know of another type of Hangover Effect. It's when the storm that follows an overachieving storm fails epically, although it's a different type than you mentioned (it happens in the same year as opposed to completely different years with the same naming list). Examples include: Lee after Katrina (2005), Joyce after Isaac (2012), Tony after Sandy (also 2012), Jose after Irene (2011), Josephine after Ike (2008), Erin after Dean (2007), Gabrielle after Felix (also 2007), Fiona and Gaston after Danielle and Earl (2010), Josephine after Isidore (2002), Jerry after Iris (2001), Hermine after Georges (1998), Fabian after Erika (1997), Gustav after Fran (1996), Pablo after Opal (1995), and many more that I probably didn't mention. This depression, if it becomes Bertha, will follow a big east coast hurricane (Arthur), resulting in another example of my version of Hangover Effect. Anyways, Advisory 2 keeps the depression at 35 mph/1012 mbar. That is a very high pressure.--Steve820 03:18, July 22, 2014 (UTC) Eh, I guess so Allan, but I'd rather see a decent fish storm instead of a weak name-stealer that does nothing but...well, exist. This might not even become Bertha, the latest NHC forecast doesn't take it past TD intensity as it heads westward towards the Antillies. Another example of a successor not living up to his predecessor would be Andrew '86 after Allen '80 (though Andrew '92 certainly did a lot). Ryan1000 03:21, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :That's actually very good thinking Steve, I wasn't thinking of that kind of scenario, though I personally wouldn't consider Dean/Erin to be a good example because of the severe flooding Erin brought to Texas. Ryan, I assume you're discounting the deadly flooding caused by Andrew '86's precursor? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:57, July 22, 2014 (UTC) ::Very little change in appearance has occurred overnight, and small areas of convection remain in the western and southwestern quadrants. The intensity remains the same based on TAFB estimates of 2.0. Tropical Depression Two should continue moving westwards under the influence of a strong deep-layer ridge into increasing dry air and wind shear levels, which should prompt dissipation within 48 to 72 hours. It does not look like the depression will be able to develop any more. AndrewTalk To Me 11:25, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah, this depression is done. Still 35 mph/1012 mbar as of advisory 4. Luckily it didn't become named or it would've been one of the biggest name wastes! But still, there's a chance I spoke too soon and it could be a named storm on one of the next advisories, but I don't think that'll happen.--Steve820 17:58, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::Yeah Dylan I only counted what Andrew '86 did when it was a tropical cyclone, which wasn't much. TD 2 still isn't named, and it probably won't be at this point. Meanwhile, in WPac, Matmo has hit Taiwan now, hopefully it doesn't pull a Morakot and drown them...Ryan1000 20:49, July 22, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Two Bertha will have to wait later.--Isaac829 16:38, July 23, 2014 (UTC) :Bye, TD Two! Luckily it didn't become Bertha. Bertha will have to come later.--Steve820 16:48, July 23, 2014 (UTC) ::The remnants of TD Two are now 140 mi east of the Lesser Antilles. With no signs of a closed circulation and unfavorable conditions as it moves westwards at 25 mph, I highly doubt any redevelopment in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, gusty winds can be expected in the Lesser Antilles, and a near 0% chance of regeneration is possible during the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 02:16, July 24, 2014 (UTC) ::It dropped off the TWO--Steve820 17:12, July 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Hangover Effect avoided for now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:12, July 26, 2014 (UTC) AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19) AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19) This wave just emerged off of Western Africa. It has an elongated vortex pattern associated with it, but no rotation of any type can be identified on SAT imagery. See the July 9 AOI section for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :Closely tailing Two. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:07, July 23, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 24) AoI: Emerging from Africa Based on Jeff Master's latest blog post, there are a train of four waves over Africa. This is the first wave, and it is just exiting Africa. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 24) 0/20. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 09:54, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :We could defintely see a little development from this AOI, but I would not expect even a tropical depression for at least another week or so. AndrewTalk To Me 17:19, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :::Dry air is still pretty prominent over much of the North Atlantic, if those conditions remain over the next week or two, this one will probably go into the EPac and develop there. Ryan1000 19:56, July 26, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Ivory Coast AOI: Over Ivory Coast This is the second of a train of four waves. Convective imagery indicates it is moderately strong with some mid-level rotation. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Nigeria AOI: Over Nigeria This is the third of a train of four waves. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Sudan AOI: Over Sudan This is the caboose of a train of four waves. It is a very strong system, and low to mid-level rotation is evident. We might see our third tropical cyclone from this. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) :Isn't this a bit...early?--Isaac829 04:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't know! What do you think? :P AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 26, 2014 (UTC)